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King Dollar is back on its throne. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six other important currencies, is near its 20-year high. The rise of the haven currency amid higher rates, a European war and global shortages is casting a long shadow.
“货币之王”美元又回到了宝座上。追踪美元对其它6种重要货币汇率的美元指数(US Dollar Index)接近20年来的高点。在利率上升、欧洲战争和全球物资短缺的背景下，这种避险货币的升值正在投下长长的阴影。
For companies with revenues overseas, the headache is the hit to earnings. The impact on the $23tn US Treasury market is a real, though less obvious, snag. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar has gained more than 18 per cent since late September. The yen’s fall against the buck risks cutting Japanese demand for US government debt.
对于拥有海外营收的公司来说，令人头疼的是收益受到的打击。对规模达23万亿美元的美国国债市场的影响是一个真正的麻烦，尽管不那么明显。自去年9月底以来，美元对日元汇率已上涨逾18%。日元对美元下跌可能会降低日本对美国政府债券的需求。
As the dollar rises, foreign investors have to pay more for currency hedges, which cuts into their returns. Although the yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly hit 2.97 per cent this month, the yield in effect falls to just 1.32 per cent once you factor in yen-dollar hedging costs. These now stand at 1.65 percentage points, a two-year high.
随着美元升值，外国投资者不得不为货币对冲支付更多的钱，这削减了他们的回报。尽管10年期美国国债收益率本月一度触及2.97%，但一旦计入日元对美元的对冲成本，实际收益率仅为1.32%。目前这一成本为1.65个百分点，为两年来的最高水平。
Japanese institutions sold a hefty $74bn of Treasuries in March, according to data released last week. While the Asian country remains the largest foreign holder of US government bonds, its $1.23tn holding is at its lowest level since January 2020.
上周公布的数据显示，日本金融机构3月份售出了740亿美元的巨额美国国债。尽管这个亚洲国家仍是美国政府债券的最大外国持有者，但其1.23万亿美元的持仓处于2020年1月以来的最低水平。
The sell-off may have been exacerbated by Japanese money managers booking profits for the fiscal year, which ends in March. Even so, the fall is 2.5 times greater than the largest previous sale by Japanese investors in a single month, according to TD Securities.
日本基金经理正在兑现截至3月份的本财年利润，可能加剧了这一抛售。尽管如此，据道明证券(TD Securities)的数据，这一跌幅仍是日本投资者此前单月最大规模抛售的2.5倍。
China, the second-largest overseas holder of Treasuries, also reduced its holdings for the fourth consecutive month in March. Since November, it has sold more than $41bn of US government debt.
中国是美国国债的第二大海外持有者，今年3月，中国也连续第四个月减持美国国债。自去年11月以来，该国已售出逾410亿美元的美国政府债券。
Sustained selling would be a problem for the Federal Reserve. The US central bank is counting on foreign investors to help absorb the increased supply of Treasuries that is coming on to the market as it ends its pandemic-era bond-buying programme. Fed boss Jay Powell will just have to hope that steeper yields and the dollar’s haven appeal will outweigh higher hedging costs.
持续的抛售对美联储(Fed)来说将是一个问题。美国央行正指望外国投资者帮助吸收增加的美国国债供应量——随着美联储结束疫情时期的债券购买计划，更多国债正在流入市场。美联储主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)只能寄希望于，收益率飙升和美元的避险吸引力将胜过增高的对冲成本。