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Africa’s debt problems were high on the agenda at last week’s IMF-World Bank meetings. Around 20 low-income African nations are either bankrupt or at high risk of debt distress. And across the continent, high interest rates, soaring inflation and sluggish economies have made post-pandemic debt piles harder to shrink.
在上周举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议上，非洲的债务问题是议程上的重要议题。约有20个低收入非洲国家要么破产，要么面临债务危机。而在整个非洲大陆，高利率、通胀飙升和经济疲软使得疫后的债务堆积更难缩减。
Regional policymakers reckon an “Africa premium” is also to blame. This, they say, is the additional cost nations face when raising finance, simply for being African. They argue it stems from bias and inaccuracy in the credit scores given by the “Big Three” American credit rating agencies, S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch — which account for 95 per cent of the global ratings market.
地区政策制定者认为“非洲溢价”也难辞其咎。他们说，这是各国在筹资时面临的额外成本，仅仅因为它们是非洲国家。他们称这源于“三大”美国信用评级机构——标普全球、穆迪和惠誉——给出的信用评分中存在的偏见和不准确。这三家机构占到全球评级市场的95%。
In recent years, African finance ministers have increasingly voiced concerns over their credit ratings, and have called for the creation of the continent’s own scoring institution. Just this week, regional experts are meeting in Nairobi to discuss how to improve credit assessments across the continent. The African Union expects an African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) — which has been in the works since 2022 — to launch next year.
近年来，非洲各国的财政部长越来越多地表达了对其信用评级的担忧，并呼吁创建非洲大陆自己的评分机构。就在本周，地区专家将在内罗毕举行会议，讨论如何改善整个非洲大陆的信用评估。非洲联盟预计，自2022年开始筹建的非洲信用评级机构(AfCRA)将于明年推出。
African nations do tend to have a higher cost of capital relative to peers with similar economic profiles. But it is hard to ascertain how much of this premium might reflect misguided perceptions, or realities around idiosyncratic political risks and structural economic challenges. Rating agencies also argue that they apply the same, rigorous debt sustainability framework to all sovereigns, whether in Africa or not.
与经济状况类似的国家相比，非洲国家获取资本的成本确实较高。但很难确定这种溢价在多大程度上反映了被误导的看法，还是反映了围绕独特政治风险和结构性经济挑战的现实。评级机构还辩称，它们对所有主权国家，无论是非洲国家还是其他国家，都采用同样的、严格的债务可持续性框架。
That does not mean the complaints of Africa’s policymakers are baseless. Credit ratings are not an exact science, and the Big Three have quickly reversed credit opinions in the past. Rating agencies combine economic analysis — using metrics such as economic growth, debt ratios, and foreign reserves — with a qualitative assessment of policies, institutions, and political and geopolitical dynamics. All of these may have an impact on creditworthiness. But the quality and reliability of Africa’s national statistics is poor. The Big Three agencies also have limited on-the-ground presence in the continent, which raises doubt over their ability to conduct holistic assessments.
这并不意味着非洲决策者的抱怨毫无根据。信用评级并不是一门精确的科学，三大评级机构过去也曾迅速推翻自己的信用评级。评级机构将经济分析——使用经济增长、债务比率和外汇储备等指标——与对政策、制度以及政治和地缘政治动态的定性评估相结合。所有这些都可能对信用价值产生影响。但非洲国家统计数据的质量和可靠性很差。三大评级机构在非洲大陆的实地存在也有限，这让人怀疑它们是否有能力进行全面评估。
This means that even if there is no systemic bias against African nations, there could still be flaws in their rating methodologies. Last year, the UN Development Programme estimated that African nations could save up to $75bn in excess interest payments and forgone lending if the agencies based scores on a more “objective” credit model.
这意味着，即使不存在针对非洲国家的系统性偏见，他们的评级方法仍可能存在缺陷。去年，据联合国开发计划署估计，如果评级机构根据更“客观”的信用模型进行评分，非洲国家可以节省高达750亿美元的超额利息支出和放弃贷款。
An Africa-led credit rating agency is no panacea, however. First, poor governance, a lack of market depth, and complications in restructuring loans are the main culprits for the continent’s indebtedness. The Big Three can be easy scapegoats. Second, a nation’s ability to repay its debts depends on more than economic models. That means judgments on issues like political dynamics are always necessary. AfCRA may lack credibility with investors if it is seen as too favourable to local debtors. Building trust will be crucial, given that most capital comes from outside the continent.
然而，一家由非洲主导的信用评级机构并非灵丹妙药。首先，治理不善、市场深度不足以及债务重组的复杂性是非洲大陆负债问题的主要原因。三大评级机构很容易成为替罪羊。其次，一个国家偿还债务的能力不仅仅取决于经济模式。这意味着对政治动态等问题的判断总是必要的。如果AfCRA被视为过于偏袒当地债务人，那么它可能会在投资者中失去信誉。鉴于大部分资本来自非洲大陆以外，建立信任将至关重要。
There could be merit in AfCRA if it was refocused to raise regional data quality and share analysis with the established agencies. The Big Three would also be wise to raise their presence in the fast-growing, young continent which is garnering more investor interest. Africa faces an enormous investment gap to tackle climate change and boost productivity, which means fair and accurate financing costs are essential.
如果AfCRA能够调整工作重点，提高地区数据质量并与老牌机构共享分析结果，那么AfCRA将大有可为。三大评级机构还应该加强在非洲这个快速增长的年轻大陆的存在，因为非洲正在吸引更多投资者的兴趣。非洲在应对气候变化和提高生产力方面面临巨大的投资缺口，这意味着公平准确的融资成本至关重要。
Even if the assessment of Africa’s credit ratings can become more granular, the biggest drivers of its high borrowing costs will still remain. Regional finance ministers should not be distracted from important, but difficult, public finance reforms. These include improving tax collection and phasing out wasteful subsidies. Multilateral debt restructuring efforts must also continue. Indeed, it will take a lot more than Africa’s own credit rating agency to turn the continent’s cash flow problems around.
即使对非洲信用等级的评估可以变得更加精细，造成非洲借贷成本高昂的最大因素仍然存在。非洲各国财长不应分散对重要但困难的公共财政改革的注意力。这些改革包括改善税收稽征和逐步取消浪费性补贴。多边债务重组努力也必须继续。事实上，要扭转非洲大陆的现金流问题，需要的不仅仅是一个非洲自己的信用评级机构。