尊敬的用户您好，这是来自FT中文网的温馨提示：如您对更多FT中文网的内容感兴趣，请在苹果应用商店或谷歌应用市场搜索“FT中文网”，下载FT中文网的官方应用。
The killing of Yahya Sinwar should mark a turning point in Israel’s more than year-long campaign to debilitate Hamas and secure the release of its hostages held in Gaza. Ever since the militant group’s horrific October 7 attack, killing the ruthless architect of the assault and decapitating Hamas’s leadership has been a prime Israeli objective. Israel has now taken out most of Hamas’s top commanders in Gaza, its political leader Ismail Haniyeh and severely degraded the group.
叶海亚•辛瓦尔(Yahya Sinwar)被杀死，应该标志着以色列长达一年多的削弱哈马斯(Hamas)并确保释放其在加沙的人质的行动的一个转折点。自该激进组织10月7日发动恐怖袭击以来，击毙这次袭击的残忍策划者并斩首哈马斯领导层一直是以色列的首要目标。现在，以色列已经干掉了哈马斯在加沙的大部分高级指挥官及其政治领导人伊斯梅尔•哈尼亚(Ismail Haniyeh)，并严重削弱了该组织的实力。
It was a moment for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take his military wins, reach a deal to end the Gaza war and save the hostages. Instead, Israel’s offensive grinds on, deepening the catastrophe for Palestinians trapped in the enclave and prolonging the agony for the families of hostages.
这是以色列总理本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu)取得军事胜利、达成结束加沙战争并解救人质协议的时刻。相反，以色列的攻势仍在继续，加深了被困在加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人的灾难，延长了人质家属的痛苦。
The scenes in northern Gaza over the past week have been horrific. Scores have been killed in the days since Sinwar’s death — the toll from Israel’s onslaught is nearing 43,000 people, according to Palestinian officials. Thousands have been forced from their homes. Even the US took the unprecedented step of warning Israel it would suspend arms sales if it did not do more to ease the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe. Israel has also intensified its assault on Hizbollah, wreaking havoc in Lebanon as its bombs flatten buildings — including non-military targets — while its forces push on with an invasion in the south.
过去一周，加沙北部的景象令人毛骨悚然。在辛瓦尔死后的几天里，已有数十人丧生--据巴勒斯坦官员称，以色列袭击造成的死亡人数已接近43 000人。成千上万人被迫离开家园。就连美国也史无前例地警告以色列，如果它不采取更多措施来缓解正在发生的人道主义灾难，它将暂停向以色列出售武器。以色列还加强了对黎巴嫩真主党(Hizbollah)的攻击，在黎巴嫩造成了严重破坏，其炸弹夷平了建筑物，包括非军事目标，同时以色列军队继续入侵南部地区。
Netanyahu is also preparing his retaliation for Iran’s missile attack on Israel three weeks ago. The region will then wait anxiously for the next round of escalation. Hizbollah, meanwhile, weakened by the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, continues to fire missiles into the Jewish state.
内塔尼亚胡也在准备对伊朗三周前对以色列的导弹袭击进行报复。该地区将焦急地等待下一轮局势升级。与此同时，黎巴嫩真主党因其领导人哈桑•纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah)被杀而削弱，但仍在继续向以色列发射导弹。
Israel, it seems, is locked in endless wars on multiple fronts. The suspicion is that Netanyahu has bet that with the Biden administration focused on the US election, he has a window to strike hard against Israel’s foes and ignore international pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza or with Hizbollah. He is likely to be calculating that a victory for Donald Trump, who during his first term gifted Netanyahu a number of pro-Israeli policies, would give him even greater licence to strike against Israel’s foes and the Palestinians.
以色列似乎陷入了多条战线上的无休止战争。有人怀疑，内塔尼亚胡打赌，在拜登政府专注于美国选举时，他有机会对以色列的敌人进行强硬打击，并无视国际社会要求在加沙或黎巴嫩真主党方面停火的压力。他可能在计算，如果唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)获胜，特朗普在第一任期内给予内塔尼亚胡的一些亲以色列政策，将使他更有权力打击以色列的敌人和巴勒斯坦人。
Yet the Biden administration seems to be dancing to Netanyahu’s tune: despite calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon one minute, it supports Israel’s goal of degrading Hizbollah the next. None of this serves the stability of the Middle East — or Israel’s long-term security interests. Hamas and Hizbollah can be decapitated and devastated but will not disappear. Many Hamas fighters are believed to be orphans of previous conflicts as cycles of violence breed new generations of militants. When one leader is killed, another takes over. When a group’s military capacity is debilitated, it reverts to guerrilla tactics.
然而，拜登政府似乎在跟随内塔尼亚胡的节奏：尽管前一分钟呼吁黎巴嫩停火，但下一分钟又支持以色列削弱黎巴嫩真主党的目标。这一切都不利于中东地区的稳定，也不利于以色列的长期安全利益。哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党可以被斩首和摧毁，但不会消失。许多哈马斯战士被认为是之前冲突的孤儿，因为暴力循环滋生了新一代激进分子。当一个领导人被杀时，另一个接替他的位置。当一个组织的军事能力受损时，它会回归游击战术。
Military history — including Israel’s past experiences in Lebanon — is littered with the follies of mission creep; of technically superior occupying armies becoming bogged down by insurgencies, often with radical forces filling the void when they depart.
军事历史——包括以色列在黎巴嫩的过去经历——充斥着任务蔓延的愚蠢行为；技术上优越的占领军被叛乱所困扰，往往在他们撤离时，激进势力会填补空白。
US President Joe Biden must end the year-long cycle of death and destruction. The threat of a full-blown Middle East war grows by the day. It is in the west’s — and the region’s — interest to pressure Netanyahu to take the diplomatic off-ramps that are available. An all-out regional conflict risks drawing American forces into conflict with Iran and its proxies. It would put the Gulf’s oil infrastructure at risk, threaten more disruption to shipping through vital trade routes and fuel more extremism.
美国总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)必须结束长达一年的死亡和破坏循环。中东全面战争的威胁与日俱增。向内塔尼亚胡施压，迫使其利用现有的外交途径，符合西方和该地区的利益。全面的地区冲突有可能将美军卷入与伊朗及其代理人的冲突。这将使海湾的石油基础设施面临风险，威胁到通过重要贸易路线的航运，并助长更多的极端主义。
Biden has the tools to rein in Netanyahu. He must halt the offensive arms sales to Israel that enable its relentless bombing of Gaza and Lebanon. He can do so without breaking Washington’s commitment to Israel’s defence, including providing air-defence systems. But Biden’s message should be clear: the bombing must stop and the day after must begin. If not, the devastation and suffering in the Middle East will come back to haunt the west.
拜登有手段来遏制内塔尼亚胡。他必须停止向以色列出售进攻性武器，这些武器使以色列能够无情地轰炸加沙和黎巴嫩。他可以在不违背华盛顿对以色列防御承诺的情况下做到这一点，包括提供防空系统。但拜登的信息应该是明确的：轰炸必须停止，新的篇章必须开始。否则，中东的破坏和苦难将重新困扰西方。