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When UniCredit bought 9 per cent of Commerzbank this month, the Italian bank’s chief executive Andrea Orcel sought to reassure Berlin of his intentions by saying cross-border deals in the industry could not happen against the will of governments.
在意大利裕信银行(UniCredit)本月收购德国商业银行(Commerzbank)9%的股份时，该行首席执行官Andrea Orcel试图向德国政府保证其收购意图，称行业内的跨境交易不会违背政府的意愿。
Outside its home market, any bank needed the “support from local institutions”, he said, noting UniCredit “always entertained a dialogue with regulators, institutions and counterparts in Germany”.
他表示，在本土市场之外，任何银行都需要“当地机构的支持”，并指出意大利裕信银行“始终与德国的监管方、机构和同行保持对话。”
That dialogue appears to have broken down. On Monday, UniCredit said it was about to overtake the German government as Commerzbank’s biggest shareholder with a 21 per cent stake after taking a position — pending regulatory approval — on a further 11.5 per cent of the German lender’s stock.
这种对话似乎已经破裂。周一，意大利裕信银行表示，在进一步收购德国商业银行11.5%的股份后（尚待监管机构批准），其持股达到21%，即将超越德国政府，成为德国商业银行最大的股东。
In New York that day, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “Unfriendly attacks [and] hostile takeovers are not a good thing for banks and that is why the German government has clearly positioned itself.”
当天，德国总理奥拉夫•朔尔茨(Olaf Scholz)在纽约表示：“不友好的攻击[和]敌意收购对银行来说不是一件好事，这也是德国政府明确自身定位的原因"。
What, if anything, can the German government, regulators and rival banks do to thwart Orcel’s ambitions to take over Commerzbank?
德国政府、监管机构和竞争对手银行能采取什么措施来挫败Orcel收购德国商业银行的野心？
What can Germany do?
德国能做些什么？
German politicians across the political spectrum have been united in their condemnation of what they perceive as Orcel’s aggressive tactics. But the government has few tools to block a takeover bid.
德国各政治派别的政治家们认为Orcel的策略咄咄逼人，予以一致谴责。但政府几乎没有可以阻止收购的手段。
Berlin had already said on Friday that it would no longer put its remaining 12 per cent stake up for sale. Instead, Orcel found another way to increase UniCredit’s stake, through derivative instruments.
柏林方面已于上周五表示，将不再出售其剩余的12%股份。但Orcel找到了通过衍生工具增持意大利裕信银行股份的方法。
The German government’s powers to shoot down takeovers were strengthened after robotics maker Kuka was acquired in 2016 by Chinese group Midea in an acrimonious takeover that fostered fears of a sellout of engineering expertise. But outside of the defence industry, the rules apply only to buyers from non-EU members.
2016年，中国企业美的集团以一种引起争议的方式收购机器人制造商库卡，引发了德国对工程专业知识出售的担忧，此后德国政府打击收购的权力得到了加强。但除国防工业外，这些规定仅适用于来自非欧盟成员国的买家。
UniCredit needs permission to lift its stake in Commerzbank above 10 per cent, but from its regulator, the European Central Bank, not Berlin.
为将其在德国商业银行的持股比例提高到10%以上，意大利裕信银行需要获得其监管方欧洲央行(ECB)而非德国政府的许可。
Mechthilde Wittmann, an MP for the opposition CSU party, said Scholz should “take the next plane to Rome and tell [Italian prime minister Giorgia] Meloni that this takeover can’t happen. We won’t agree to it”.
反对党基社盟议员Mechthilde Wittmann表示，朔尔茨应该“搭乘下一班飞机前往罗马，告诉（意大利总理）梅洛尼，这次收购不可能发生。我们不会同意”。
Others, however, disagree. “I don’t see that the German authorities have any leverage,” said Hans-Peter Burghof, a banking expert at Hohenheim university.
然而，其他人持不同意见。霍恩海姆大学银行业专家Hans-Peter Burghof表示：“我认为德国当局没有任何影响力”。
“UniCredit is a European bank and so European rules on competition, bank supervision and capital markets apply. And the German authorities don’t really have any say in the matter.”
“意大利裕信银行是一家欧洲银行，因此适用欧洲的竞争规则、银行监管和资本市场规则。德国当局对此事并没有发言权。”
Ministers were within their rights to express their opinion on a possible takeover, as Scholz did on Monday, “but it’s just a description”, said Burghof. “Yes, it’s a hostile takeover . . . and they can express their annoyance, but little more than that.”
Burghof表示：”部长们有权就可能的收购发表意见，正如朔尔茨周一所做的那样，“但这只是一种描述”。“是的，这是一次敌意收购……他们可以表达自己的不满，但仅此而已。”
What can the ECB do?
欧洲央行能做些什么？
The idea of a UniCredit merger with Commerzbank was initially welcomed within the ECB, which has long called for more cross-border consolidation in the sector.
欧洲央行最初对意大利裕信银行与德国商业银行的合并构想表示欢迎，长期以来一直呼吁加强银行业的跨境整合。
But some at Europe’s top banking regulator are annoyed about what they regard as Orcel’s “aggressive” tactics, according to people familiar with their views.
但据知情人士透露，欧洲最高银行监管机构的一些人对Orcel的“激进”策略感到恼火。
European rules on bank ownership — designed to prevent criminals and shady funds from getting control of a bank — are complex and bureaucratic.
欧洲关于银行所有权的规定既复杂又官僚，因为这些规定旨在防止犯罪分子和黑钱控制银行。
Joachim Kaetzler, banking partner at law firm CMS Hasche Sigle, described them as “an avalanche of documents”.
CMS Hasche Sigle律师事务所的银行合伙人Joachim Kaetzler形容其为“雪崩般的文件”。
However, “reasons to reject the application [by UniCredit to take its stake above 10 per cent] are highly unlikely to arise”, said Kaetzler, because the Italian bank was one of Europe’s largest and most profitable lenders and its top-ranking officials had been approved by the ECB.
然而，Kaetzler表示，“拒绝意大利裕信银行申请将其股份提高到10%以上的理由几乎不太可能出现”，因为该意大利银行是欧洲最大、最赚钱的银行之一，其高层官员已获得欧洲央行的批准。
Under the application rules, the ECB is required to make a decision within 60 days but can add another 30 days in complicated cases.
根据申请规则，欧洲央行需要在60天内做出决定，但复杂案例可以再延长30天。
With BaFin, Germany’s financial regulator, responsible for assembling the application to be submitted to the ECB, German bureaucrats in theory have scope to take a particularly rigorous approach — by requesting additional documents, for instance.
德国金融监管机构BaFin负责收集提交给欧洲央行的申请，理论上，德国官僚有空间采取特别严格的方法，例如要求提供额外的文件。
“An ownership-control procedure can easily take six to 12 months,” said Kaetzler.
Kaetzler表示：“所有权控制程序很容易耗时6到12个月”。
What can other banks do?
其他银行能做什么？
Any bidder deemed preferable to UniCredit would have to secure support from the government.
任何被认为比意大利裕信银行更可取的竞标人都必须获得政府的支持。
The most obvious candidate is Deutsche Bank, which has discussed a move for Commerzbank several times before.
最明显的候选者是德意志银行，该行曾多次讨论收购德国商业银行。
Such a deal would mean Commerzbank — a crucial lender to the Mittelstand, the small and medium companies that form the backbone of the German economy — remained in domestic hands.
这一交易将意味着德国商业银行—构成德国经济支柱的中小型企业的关键贷款人—仍将掌握在德国国内手中。
However, it would result in a large number of job cuts and branch closures, which may be unpalatable to German voters and unions.
然而，这将导致大量裁员和分支机构关闭，可能让德国选民和工会感到不快。
Deutsche is also not in the best position to buy Commerzbank, as it would have to pay in cash for shares owned by the government or in the open market.
德意志银行也不具备收购德国商业银行的最佳条件，因其必须以现金支付政府持有的股份或在公开市场上进行收购。
Doing so would disrupt plans to return €8bn to shareholders by 2025, which Germany’s largest lender paused earlier this year after taking a €1.3bn hit from a long-running lawsuit.
这样做将打乱到2025年向股东返还80亿欧元的计划，这家德国最大的银行在今年早些时候因长期诉讼而损失了13亿欧元后暂停了这一计划。
Deutsche Bank boss Christian Sewing said this month he was unfazed about a potential takeover of Commerzbank by UniCredit. “Competition is good for business”, he added.
德意志银行首席执行官Christian Sewing本月表示，对意大利裕信银行可能收购德国商业银行并不担心。他补充道：“竞争对业务有益。”
Other banks such as France’s BNP Paribas, Spain’s Santander and ING of the Netherlands could also be encouraged to make a bid.
法国巴黎银行、西班牙桑坦德银行和荷兰国际集团等其他银行也可能被鼓励参与竞购。
These banks do not have German operations of the size of UniCredit’s HypoVereinsbank, so such a combination would not benefit from the same synergies.
这些银行在德国的业务规模不及意大利裕信银行的HypoVereinsbank，因此合并后无法获得同样的协同效应。
Entering a bidding war with a rival holding a 21 per cent stake is another complication.
与持有21%股份的竞争对手展开竞购战是另一个复杂因素。
What can Commerzbank do?
德国商业银行能做什么？
Orcel unveiled his initial move on Commerzbank hours after the German bank said its chief executive Manfred Knof would leave by the end of 2025.
在德国商业银行宣布其首席执行官曼Manfred Knof将于2025年底离职数小时后，Orcel公布了他对该银行的初步举措。
Commerzbank on Tuesday evening appointed chief financial officer Bettina Orlopp as its new chief executive to champion the lender’s standalone strategy and rally investor support.
德国商业银行周二晚间任命首席财务官Bettina Orlopp为新任首席执行官，负责支持该行的独立战略并争取投资者的支持。
But even Commerzbank insiders who are sceptical about a deal acknowledge that it will be almost impossible to present a standalone strategy that is financially as attractive as a merger.
但即使是对交易持怀疑态度的德国商业银行内部人士也承认，几乎不可能提出一项与合并一样具有财务吸引力的独立战略。
A combination with HypoVereinsbank would result in billions of euros of cost savings and economies of scale.
与HypoVereinsbank合并将节省数十亿欧元的成本和规模经济。
Commerzbank could come up with a poison pill to scupper the deal — for example by agreeing to sell its corporate bank to Deutsche Bank in exchange for a stake in the rival.
德国商业银行可以采取“毒丸”策略破坏这笔交易，例如同意将其企业银行出售给德意志银行，以换取对手方的股份。
But people close to Commerzbank told the Financial Times that management “won’t do anything crazy” to derail a UniCredit bid if it came at the expense of the German lender’s franchise.
但与德国商业银行关系密切的人士告诉英国《金融时报》，如果以牺牲该行特许经营权为代价，管理层“不会做任何疯狂的事情”来破坏意大利裕信银行的收购要约。
The alternative may be to try to squeeze a generous takeover premium from Orcel, as well as guarantees to keep decision-making and a listing of the German operations in Frankfurt.
另一种选择可能是试图从Orcel那里榨取丰厚的收购溢价，以及保证保留决策权和德国业务在法兰克福上市。