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At his State of the Union address early last month, US President Joe Biden proudly hailed the American economy as “the envy of the world”. It is hard to disagree. America has had the strongest post-pandemic economic recovery of all G7 nations. Annual inflation has fallen 6 percentage points from its summer 2022 peak, and the unemployment rate remains near record lows, even as interest rates have risen. To top it off, the S&P 500 is soaring.
在上个月初的国情咨文演讲中，美国总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)自豪地宣称美国经济是“世界的羡慕对象”。这一观点实在难以反驳。在所有G7国家中，美国的疫后经济复苏最为强劲。年通胀率已从2022年夏季的高峰下降了6个百分点，尽管利率有所上升，但失业率仍然维持在接近历史最低点的水平。最后，标普500指数的飙升更是锦上添花。
Despite the impressive national economic data — which Biden reeled off in his speech — surveys suggest Americans put more faith in Donald Trump to handle the economy. Consumer sentiment also remains below pre-pandemic levels. What explains the disconnect? Rising political polarisation is one driver — Democrat voters do tend to be more optimistic about the economic outlook. But partisan divides are only part of the story. Ultimately, it is the economic realities of daily life that matter most to individuals. And in America’s colossal economy, what is true for the whole is rarely true for its parts.
尽管拜登在演讲中列举了令人印象深刻的国家经济数据，但调查显示，美国人更相信特朗普(Donald Trump)能够处理经济问题。消费者信心也仍然低于疫情前的水平。这种脱节的原因是什么呢？政治两极化的加剧是一个驱动因素——民主党选民确实对经济前景更为乐观。但党派分歧只是问题的一部分。最终，对个人来说，日常生活中的经济现实才是最重要的。在美国这个庞大的经济体中，适用于整体的情况往往并不适用于各个部分。
The US economy is significantly larger than all other G7 economies — but also its most unequal by income. As in other advanced economies, globalisation, financialisation and automation have been behind a growing divide between urban and non-urban areas. Between 1980 and 2021, America’s geographic income inequality rose over 40 per cent, according to the US Department of Commerce. The Biden administration has placed emphasis on reindustrialising left-behind regions, but commitments from the Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act will take time to deliver new factories and sufficient jobs on the ground.
美国经济规模远超其他G7经济体，但在收入不平等方面也是最严重的。与其他发达经济体一样，全球化、金融化和自动化是城市与非城市地区之间日益扩大的鸿沟的原因。根据美国商务部(US Department of Commerce)的数据，从1980年到2021年，美国的地理收入不平等增长了40%以上。拜登政府强调对落后地区的再工业化，但《降低通胀法》(Inflation Reduction Act)和《芯片法案》(Chips Act)的承诺需要时间才能在地面上建立新的工厂并提供足够的就业机会。
These divides mean the strong headline economic numbers mask large differences in the lived experiences of households and businesses across the country. First, large urbanised areas — including tech and finance hubs — have driven economic growth since the pandemic, while smaller metro and rural areas have continued to lag behind.
这些分歧意味着，强劲的经济头条数据掩盖了全国各地家庭和企业生活体验的巨大差异。首先，包括科技和金融中心在内的大型城市化地区自疫情以来一直是经济增长的驱动力，而较小的都市和农村地区则持续滞后。
Second, although inflation is falling nationally, the cost of living — which factors highly into voters perceptions of the economy — also varies widely. States including Nevada, Utah, Arizona and Idaho — where Biden’s approval ratings are currently polling below the US average — have also experienced above average price-level increases between January 2021 and the start of this year, according to data compiled by Moody’s Analytics. Quarterly transitions into debt delinquency are also trending well above the national average in Texas and Florida, where Trump continues to have strong support.
其次，尽管全国的通胀率正在下降，但生活成本——这对选民对经济的看法有重大影响——也存在很大的差异。根据穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)编制的数据，包括内华达、犹他州、亚利桑那州和爱达荷州在内的一些州，这些州在2021年1月至今年年初的物价水平上涨超过了平均水平，而拜登在这些州的支持率目前低于美国平均水平。在德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州，季度违约率的增长也远高于全国平均水平，而特朗普在这两个州仍然得到强大的支持。
Third, consumer spending — which has been strong, despite the higher cost of credit — has been propped up by the wealthiest Americans, who are also benefiting from rising home and equity valuations. But there are significant signs of stress elsewhere. The share of newly delinquent credit card borrowers on lower incomes has risen above 2019 levels, the number of multiple jobholders has picked up, and even some discount retail stores are struggling.
第三，尽管信贷成本上升，但消费支出一直保持强劲，这主要得益于最富有的美国人，他们也从房屋和股票估值的上升中获益。然而，其他地方也出现了明显的压力迹象。低收入信用卡借款人的新违约比例已经超过2019年的水平，兼职工作的人数有所增加，甚至一些折扣零售店也面临困境。
Finally, while the attention has been on the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, optimism and hiring plans among small businesses — which employ close to half of the country’s private sector workforce — have been dropping.
最后，尽管人们的关注焦点一直在“瑰丽七股”(Magnificent Seven)科技股上，但雇佣了国家近半私营部门劳动力的小企业的乐观情绪和招聘计划却在下降。
America’s recent strength has surprised most. But dig beneath the surface and the country’s economic weaknesses — and its political divides — become clearer. For a nation the size of a continent, with vast inequalities, aggregate data is obscuring. As markets place bets on the US economy and politicians campaign, it pays to break it down.
美国近期的强势令众多人感到惊讶。然而，只要深入探究，这个国家的经济弱点和政治分歧就会变得更加明显。对于一个像大陆一样广大、存在巨大不平等的国家来说，总体数据往往掩盖了真实情况。在市场对美国经济进行投注，政治家们进行竞选活动时，对数据进行细分分析是非常必要的。